Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 18.774113 20.382472 22.154098 24.267998 26.745639 29.588627 33.144318
2024-10-13 16.378858 18.484950 20.969969 24.180007 28.315017 33.615061 41.206875
2024-10-20 14.530205 16.857644 19.745392 23.711330 29.233005 37.043127 49.830842
2024-10-27 13.665849 16.271068 19.663184 24.617832 32.112385 43.987856 67.094433
2024-11-03 12.610162 15.284223 18.885713 24.388110 33.259767 48.706664 84.041633
2024-11-10 11.832888 14.567101 18.361591 24.402341 34.755560 54.610041 109.431657
2024-11-17 11.227089 14.013340 17.985527 24.554526 36.497475 61.810888 149.460318
2024-11-24 10.704839 13.521378 17.632155 24.666271 38.179035 69.840916 213.669489
2024-12-01 10.190439 12.992861 17.160216 24.492041 39.247312 77.099677 309.689172
2024-12-08 9.784703 12.589404 16.837091 24.520373 40.743368 86.740778 523.821095
2024-12-15 9.374486 12.147846 16.409206 24.291243 41.610993 95.283032 984.441723
2024-12-22 9.012017 11.753725 16.022312 24.082650 42.479489 104.869560 2839.326096
2024-12-29 8.675002 11.384816 15.658055 23.893290 43.425957 116.462628 NaN
2025-01-05 8.382335 11.067864 15.356431 23.791079 44.601908 131.280662 NaN
2025-01-12 8.054710 10.678148 14.902743 23.326121 44.681983 140.990650 NaN
2025-01-19 7.964758 10.658993 15.084142 24.202414 48.935264 187.880481 NaN
2025-01-26 7.716207 10.370787 14.770448 23.976328 49.775279 213.212227 NaN
2025-02-02 7.520211 10.157817 14.575716 23.988583 51.430746 255.649880 NaN
2025-02-09 7.356368 9.988902 14.447993 24.135554 53.643528 322.884418 NaN
2025-02-16 7.198298 9.821504 14.310929 24.243607 55.802765 418.228116 NaN
2025-02-23 7.015732 9.604959 14.068723 24.074099 56.865063 515.653102 NaN
2025-03-02 6.868374 9.441086 13.915068 24.101472 58.784323 707.449438 NaN
2025-03-09 6.700514 9.235706 13.670809 23.878799 59.589080 918.008825 NaN